I'm Not Coming Home Bag & When To Leave

preparedness 17-01-2026

There are always unlikley edge cases. A once in a millinium (eon?) tsunami, earthquake much stronger than usual (for the Philippines), war / invasion, use your imagination. For the last one, hanging around in country is probably a bad idea in any scenario. For the larger, natural disasters that directly impact your area, there are variables that are hard to plan for, but there are plenty of conceivable scenarios where the smart move is going to be to leave your home and probably leave the country.

This blog post explores what to pack in an “I’m Not Coming Home” (INCH) bag and when it’s time to leave explicitly for expats living in the Philippines. It keeps the tone practical and grounded in local realities—geography, infrastructure, visas, and common failure points—without drifting into politics or fantasy.

When You’re Not Coming Home: INCH Evacuation Planning for Expats in the Philippines

Living in the Philippines comes with undeniable upsides: cost of living, natural beauty, and a culture that’s welcoming and resilient. But it also comes with unique risk factors that expats tend to underestimate—geography, infrastructure fragility, and dependence on external supply chains.

Most emergency advice assumes you’ll evacuate briefly and return. But, certain edge-case scenarios don’t allow for that assumption:

In those moments, you’re not grabbing a weekend bag.

You’re executing an INCH plan: I’m Not Coming Home.

Why INCH Planning Matters More in the Philippines

The Philippines is not one landmass—it’s an archipelago.

That means:

If you’re an expat in Cebu, Palawan, Siargao, or a rural coastal area, your margin for error is smaller than someone living near NAIA in Metro Manila.

An INCH bag and exit plan are about mobility and legality, not survival theatrics.

Likely High-Impact Scenarios (Philippines Context)

This kind of planning is for low-probability but high-impact events, such as:

You don’t need to predict the cause.

You need to recognize when normal exit routes start narrowing.

Realistic Exit Options for Expats

1. International Flights (Best Option — Early Only)

Your best exit is still commercial aviation, but timing is everything.

International flights usually operate until congestion or policy shuts them down.

Early departures blend in as normal travelers.

Late departures face scrutiny, price spikes, or cancellations.

Key reality: The Philippines does not do large-scale, rapid evacuations well. If you wait, you queue.

2. Regional “Hop” Strategy

Instead of heading straight home:

This reduces pressure, avoids chokepoints, and keeps your travel profile ordinary.

Inter-island ferries, cargo vessels, or private boats may exist—but:

Sea exits are not romantic and rarely scalable. Treat them as last-resort bridges, not plans.

4. Embassy Assistance (Helpful, Not Primary)

Embassies can help—but they are:

Register with your embassy before anything happens, but don’t rely on this alone.

I don’t know how other embassies work, but remember that the US embassy will charge you for all “assistance” rendered and it may not be the most cost-effective option.

The INCH Bag — Philippines-Specific Priorities

Every item must help you leave legally and rebuild elsewhere.

1. Identity & Documents (Critical)

Waterproof everything. Humidity and floods destroy paper fast.

2. Money & Financial Access

Emergency cash in:

Assume:

Cash buys time. Access buys options.

3. Communications

When networks degrade, redundancy matters.

4. Health & Function

You’re not camping. You’re transiting under stress.

5. Clothing & Personal Gear

Blend in. Don’t advertise anything.

6. Data & Continuity

Encrypted USB drive with:

If everything digital fails, you still exist on paper.

What Expats Should Not Pack

Your goal is smooth passage, not preparedness cosplay.

Mindset: The Expat Advantage (If You Use It)

Expats often have:

But they also:

Your advantage only exists if you act early.

Knowing When to Leave: Early Warning Signs & Decision Triggers for an INCH Evacuation

The hardest part of an emergency evacuation isn’t packing or logistics.

It’s deciding when “this might pass” quietly becomes “this won’t.”

Most people don’t get trapped because they lack resources. They get trapped because they wait for certainty — official announcements, consensus, confirmation from others — and by then, options have collapsed.

This companion guide is about recognition and timing: how to spot early warning signs and define personal decision triggers before you’re under pressure.

The Problem with Waiting for “Official” Signals

Governments are slow by design. Authorities avoid panic. Information is filtered, delayed, and softened.

That means:

If your plan depends on announcements, you’re already late.

Categories of Early Warning Signs

No single sign matters on its own. What matters is clusters — multiple small failures appearing at once.

1. Information & Communication Friction

These are often the first cracks.

Watch for:

Red flag: When rumors spread faster than clarifications — and clarifications stop adding detail.

2. Financial & Commercial Signals

Money reacts before people do.

Early indicators:

** Red flag: When moving money becomes harder than moving people.**

3. Transportation Irregularities

Transportation failures don’t start with shutdowns — they start with inconsistency.

Watch for:

Red flag: When schedules stop being predictable.

4. Administrative Tightening

This is where policy starts turning into control.

Watch for:

Red flag: When movement begins requiring explanation.

5. Social & Behavioral Shifts

Crowds often sense danger before they can articulate it.

Watch for:

Red flag:

Ignore:

Pay attention to:

Decision Triggers: Pre-Commit or Freeze

A decision trigger is a line you decide not to debate later.

Examples (you define your own):

Why Early Movers Win

Leaving early doesn’t mean you were right. It means you retained options.

Early movers:

Late movers:

You don’t need to be first.

You just don’t want to be last.

Quiet Execution Principles

When your trigger hits:

Move cleanly, legally, and calmly.

If you’re wrong, the cost is inconvenience.

If you’re right, the benefit is freedom.

Final Thought

An INCH plan isn’t about fear or distrust of the Philippines. It’s about acknowledging geography and systems honestly.

You may never need this plan—and that’s ideal.

But if the day comes when returning isn’t realistic, having your documents, money, and exit path ready turns chaos into a series of manageable steps.

Preparedness isn’t panic.

It’s choosing not to let surprise make your decisions for you.

Most disasters don’t arrive as explosions. They arrive as delays, shortages, mixed messages, and “temporary” measures.

The people who leave safely are rarely the bravest. They’re the ones who recognized the pattern — and acted while action was still boring.

Preparedness isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about not needing certainty to protect your agency.

Thinking of Moving to the Philippines? Get Reliable Guidance

If you can walk for hours, stay hydrated, remain documented, and not draw attention—you’re doing it right. Online communities are helpful for general questions. For anything important, you still need accurate, professional, and updated information. E636 Expat Services helps foreigners with:

If you want to move with confidence instead of relying on random comments online, we can guide you every step of the way.

Book a consultation with E636 and start your journey the right way.

Author's photo

E636 Team

Expert guidance and practical solutions for your new life in the Philippines.
Founded by an American expat living there since 2019. Get in touch →

See other articles:

undefinedThumbnail

Income Inequality -- Filipino Edition

Let's talk about income inequality in the Philippines, contrasted with trends in the United States, including why the perception that the Philippines is worse holds water--and where the nuance lies.

culture 17-01-2026